Nascar at Michigan: Qualifying May Not Say Much About the Race…again.

As a Nascar fan (and former local short track racer), I just can’t seem to understand why they call it “race” qualifying. It seems it could better be named “pit stall” qualifying rather than qualifying for a good starting spot for the race.

affbannerblank3 Nascar at Michigan: Qualifying May Not Say Much About the Race...again.

If past weeks tell us anything, it would be that qualifying tells us very little about how the race is going to go. Sure, I know this isn’t the first time I’ve mentioned this and it sure won’t be the last. It’s just that I put very little stock in the qualifying times especially when the first practice (or practices) don’t tell us that much anyway.

With the length of the race and all of the possible changes that will be made during the final practices, I don’t expect the finishing order at the end of the race to be anything at all like the beginning will be on Sunday.

Past races at Michigan International Speedway speak of long green flag runs and a wide racing surface that gives up to four-wide racing which, in the end, will dictate the winner, (well that and the car that handles the best, gets the best fuel mileage and has the most horsepower.)

Just take a look at the starting lineup. I admit there are some pretty strong cars starting up front, but, I also know there are some pretty strong cars starting in the middle and back of the pack.

Jeff Gordon blew his engine before qualifying, so he was definitely only qualifying for a pit stall. He will start in the back no matter what his qualifying time was. This may not prove to be such a bad thing since Tony Stewart proved last week that starting in the back wasn’t that much of a problem for someone with a fast car and fast pit stops (and the yellow flags falling at the right time). Up to this point, though, Jeff Gordon hasn’t been going fast enough to make me think he is going to just blow by everybody although I will be watching him to see how today’s final practice goes. Besides, one of the large contributing factors for Tony winning the race last week was his number one pit stall. I don’t think many will argue that point.

This week, many of the qualifying times were much faster than the times recorded in the first practice when the cars were in race trim. That may tell us something. Very little of the qualifying trim will actually be used for the race since most people know that that setup is mostly for one lap, (two at the most) and only gives an advantage to them for that period of time. (Once again, I bring up the point of MIS being about long green flag runs and consistent speeds. A couple of fast laps followed by much slower laps doesn’t really help move you to the front very quickly.)

It is ‘just this fan’s view’, but I firmly believe fuel mileage and where the caution flags fall will have much more bearing on the outcome of the race than the qualifying lap times and the lap times in general. Let’s not forget the double-file restarts and the associated strategies that will go along with that. This could prove to be a more interesting race than it usually is.

This is another one of those weeks that the recorded lap times and the way the field lines up will make it hard to predict a winner, but that hasn’t stopped us from making fools of ourselves before (and I don’t think it will stop us today.) Personally, I just like to see how well I can pick ‘em, I guess. (Believe me, it’s nothing personal against anyone.) Lately my choices have been mediocre, at best.

I won’t take a lot of time giving you all of the reasons why I think someone is going to do better over the rest, but I have to say some look to have a better chance to win than the others.

Denny Hamlin needs to have some good luck this week and he could take the victory. He looks strong, but he did last week, too. Kyle Bush is going to be right there, also. He is about due to flex a little muscle this week and he is starting on the front row.

I also think the Roush teams are going to be pretty tough this week. Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth in particular are hungry and look pretty tough. Michigan is a place they generally shine and I am sure they want to make a strong showing this weekend.

I can’t make the final choice without mentioning Brian Vickers, Mark Martin and Jimmy Johnson. This is what makes it so tough to choose, too many strong cars and teams and many of them will have good pit stalls.

Oh well, I guess I shouldn’t put it off any longer since I know you’re just beside yourselves with anticipation. I really think Carl Edwards could pull off the victory this weekend, but, I know Greg Biffle is running strong too. Jimmy Johnson is looking to make Michigan another track he has won at and that means he and Chad Knaus are out to prove something. Mark Martin has just been plain solid all year and can’t be ruled out as the possible winner.

Let’s see, Carl Edwards…? Denny Hamlin…? Greg Biffle…? Mark Martin…?

Aw, geez! This is way too hard … Oh well, I’m picking Jimmy Johnson … or … oh, never mind…

See ya next time…
Rusty
(all opinions expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer)

© June 2009 – all rights reserved

Just A Fan’s View and Rusty Norman

Darlington “After Chatter” from Just A Fan’s View

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Hey, everybody…

The race at Darlington Saturday night was another great Nascar race with a record number of cautions and plenty of excitement and drama right down to the dropping of the checkered flag.

Since everybody already knows who won, I don’t see any reason to spend a lot of time on that aspect of the race, but I do want to make sure that everyone understands just how strong the Hendrick teams and the ones associated with Hendrick racing are.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand the meaning of six out of the top seven finishers being either Hendrick teams or Hendrick associated teams. In fact, three of the top five were Hendrick teams finishing first, second and fifth. They are proving week in and week out they are slightly ahead of the curve this year and they are the ones the others are going to have to beat if they want to have a chance of being at the top of the heap in Sprint Cup this year.

I guess the only thing that remains to be seen is how long the Hendrick domination lasts. We all know this is Sprint Cup racing and once the other teams find a little bit of extra performance, (or maybe just a little more luck), it can change the whole face of the ones that are passing under the checkered flags first and taking the trophies home each week.

I would like to offer a quick fan’s look at the Jeremy Mayfield situation. I never cease to be amazed at how quickly people pass judgment or find an excuse for someone in Jeremy’s position and how quickly they take Nascar to task for the way the handle things.

Fortunately, Nascar has never been an organization to shirk it’s responsibility when it comes to hard or unpopular decisions. I appreciate the fact they give enough information about an issue to make sure people understand there is a problem, but also respect the person or persons under suspicion enough to not give out too much information. Yes, I do understand how peoples’ imaginations can run wild but I don’t hold Nascar responsible for that.

People will be people no matter what the situation and this situation is no different. When the time is right, the fan’s will know what needs to be known. Until that time we, the fans, need to trust Nascar and the people involved to take care of the problem what ever it may be. We need to have a little patience and understand they are doing all they can for the benefit of the fans and the sport as well as those involved in the situation.

Just a Fan’s View congratulates Mark Martin for his second victory this year and also Hendrick Motorsports for their competitive edge so far this year. If any of you fans out there are Hendrick Motorsports fans I know you’re having a great year, so far. The rest of you…well…you know what kind of year you’re having…

This coming Saturday is the All Star race at Charlotte, NC and that means no holds barred racing for a million dollars is in store for all of us Nascar fans this weekend. If you’re like me, you can’t wait till it starts…

See ya next time…
Rusty

(all views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer.)

© May 2009 – all rights reserved

Just A Fan’s View and Rusty Norman

Update: Nascar at Phoenix … the ‘After Chatter’ from “Just A Fan’s View”

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Well … I would say Jimmy Johnson did exactly what he needed to do to keep distance between him and Carl Edwards in his attempt to win his third consecutive Nascar title … and once again … I called it before it happened, right down to the him leading the most laps.

So … who cares? Well, I do for one.

I know it sounds like I’m bragging, but I’m really not … I’m just glad I do call it right sometimes. I’m sure it sets me up for being humbled in the future, but, it feels good at the moment.

Besides, I have a very good friend that has a saying that goes something like this:

“He who tooteth not his own horn, the same remains untooted.”

This week, I tooteth it — Next week, who knows … maybe it could happen again.

Oh, well … enough about me and the “Just A Fan’s View” prediction of who would win the race in Phoenix over the weekend. Let’s talk a little bit about the events of the race.

To me, it seemed Carl Edwards struggled to move up through the pack unlike last week when it seemed nothing could hold him back. He was definitely mired back in the frenzy that went on most of the day for quite a while. Even when it seemed he was going to make up some positions something else would go wrong either in the pits or on the track. It just took a lot of time for him to move up into position to possibly catch Jimmy Johnson. He finally finished fourth.

The thing I find missing so far in the ‘after chatter’ of Phoenix is the incidents between A J Allmendinger, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart, (and let’s not forget Juan Pablo Montoya for the second week in a row.) Although I have heard a couple of things said about the situation, for the most part it didn’t make the headlines. At the checkered flag, it was pretty obvious from “A Fan’s View” that what happened was a little payback from Matt Kenseth to A J and it resulted in a lot of damaged cars, including Tony Stewart’s for the second time in the race and Montoya for the second, (actually third) week, in a row.

I’m not against payback, but I am surprised by the lack of chatter about it. Maybe that is because ABC decided to terminate their broadcast of the race to “honor their obligations” to “America’s Funniest Home Videos” instead of finishing their coverage of the race.

I think they made a drastic error in judgment and It is my opinion that ABC should be terminated from coverage of Nascar racing in the future. These are strong words I know, but, this is inexcusable.

First of all let me say, I understand more people watch the races when they are broadcast on the major networks and I can appreciate that. I just don’t think that ABC should be allowed the privilege of prospering from the popularity of Nascar in the future.

I realize this means possible problems for the future and I understand the situation but I also know that no one else would have interrupted another sports broadcast until it was over. That speaks very loudly of whoever made the decision to transfer the coverage to ESPN2. Contrary to popular opinion, not everyone has ESPN2 to turn to. I personally wouldn’t have it because I hardly watch ESPN anything and don’t like the expense it adds to my monthly bill. I know it is popular for others, I just don’t watch it because I just don’t watch it. It’s a personal thing and I won’t get into that right now. (Maybe someday I will.)

Now that I’ve said all of that, it is time to look forward to the coming weekend in Homestead. The Chase for the Cup has been narrowed down to two, Jimmy Johnson and Carl Edwards. The rest are racing for the also-ran title. I think it is going to be an interesting race and finish to the Chase. Last week Jimmy Johnson and the the entire 48 team, did exactly what they needed to do.

This week, Jimmy only has to finish 36th or better and that isn’t much of a challenge … or, is it …?

See ya next time …

Rusty

©2008 PCN Productions and Rusty Norman

All Rights Reserved

Update on: Nascar At Martinsville … “Just A Fan’s View” After Chatter

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Well the race over the weekend at Martinsville proved to be a no-brainer if we focus on recent past performances at the 1/2 mile ‘paperclip’ in south-central Virginia. The Hendrick teams once again dominated the day as they have most trips to this track over the last several years.

Between Jimmy Johnson and Jeff Gordon running up front most of the day and the overall impressive showing by the Hendrick teams, it left absolutely no doubt that they have the place pretty well figured out. As the stands cleared, the final results showed the Hendrick cars had finished first, second, fourth and sixth. Jeff Gordon finished fourth and that made his eighth consecutive top five finish. When you think about it, he didn’t have the win but that statistic isn’t too shabby, either.

Specifically, Jimmy Johnson lead 339 laps and no one could consistently keep him behind them all day, which is proved by his driving into victory lane after the race. Having the number one pit stall didn’t hurt his performance for the race either. He was strong as usual from beginning to end and, in my opinion, looks very strong to finish the year out front and take this year’s Sprint Cup. By doing so he would become only the second driver in Nascar history to win three championships in a row, (a feat previously accomplished only by Cale Yarborough and that puts him in pretty good company.)

Although it was a fairly typical Martinsville race, it progressed mostly without any major altercations. Jeff Burton experienced difficulty in the pits on the last stop and, unfortunately, it cost him a lap and some points in the standings dropping Jeff to third behind Greg Biffle who now is 149 points behind ‘Chase’ leader, Jimmy Johnson.

Greg Biffle and his team tried a strategy during the race that ended up hurting them in the final results as he finished 12th, but because of Jeff Burton’s problem in the pits, Greg moved to second in the Chase standings by a slim three point margin. In an after race interview, he said he was happy with that performance and was really excited to be heading to Atlanta next week.

Carl Edwards sits fourth in the standings, 198 points behind Johnson.

The next three, Bowyer, Harvick and Gordon are over 242 points out of first which in my opinion makes it look like their chances of coming close to even taking over the second spot are dismal and would require Biffle, Burton, and Edwards to help them by having some really bad finishes. Although strange things do happen in the Chase format, I just don’t think any of those three are going to have that much trouble in the near future, especially considering the tracks Nascar visits over the next four races.

Looking ahead to Martinsville next year, I know that Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards are looking forward to race next Spring considering their after race comments. With their finishes this week of third and twelfth they certainly appear to have some of their problems with the track worked out. They finished strong and look to be strong this coming weekend in Atlanta. (If you remember the race from earlier in the year at Atlanta, Carl Edwards ran strong but his engine blew before the end of the race.) In any case, it should prove to be interesting to see how they measure up to the Hendrick teams in the spring time.

Overall, Martinsville was very much a normal short-track race with beatin’, bangin’ and the usual short track intensity and frustrations. The only noticeable recurring problem was a few problems with tires being over heated by the heavy braking required to slow the heavy C.O.T. cars. Some teams, noticeably, have a lot of work to do in that department.

See ya next time …
Rusty

Nascar At Martinsville: “Just A Fan’s View” of Beatin’ and Bangin’ at the 1/2 mile ‘Paperclip’

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The Stop for Nascar this week is Martinsville. (Wait a minute … you already knew that. That’s why they call you a Nascar Fan, right?)

Well, as most of us already know, Martinsville is a flat, 1/2 mile short track that yields high speeds and hot tempers more often than not. The pits are extremely cramped and the word from the crew chiefs to the drivers is usually something along the lines of, “Hit your marks, save your brakes and keep your cool.”

Now, do the drivers listen? Well … sometimes.

The qualifying was rained out on Friday as well as the practice session throwing a wrench in the works for the weekend. It also threw a wrench into the works for me because I try to get these reports out at least by Friday before the race so it isn’t such, “old News.” (Oh well, that’s racin’).

The rain-out will have the ‘Chasers’ lined up according to points and that is good and bad depending on who you talk to. Jimmy Johnson will start on the pole with Jeff Burton on the outside. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards fill out the second row while Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick the third. All of this yields not only a good starting position for all of them, but great spots in the pits also.

If we take a look at recent qualifying and race performances at Martinsville, it gives the impression that some will benefit from the rain-out and some will be disadvantaged by it. Unfortunately, the statistics lean heavily on the winner starting in the top ten. that doesn’t mean the winner won’t come from further back in the field, but the chances are definitely much slimmer.

I think Jeff Gordon has a very good chance to finish up front this week simply because he always seems to perform well at Martinsville. (But I get ahead of myself). Because of the rain-out he will be starting eighth and have a poorer than normal pit stall because he usually qualifies nearer the front. This may affect his finish, but he still has a great chance of taking the checkered flag. Tony Stewart and Jeff fill up the fourth row.

The biggest thing I noticed during the first practice was the lap times separating the fastest from the slowest were only about a half second apart. That means the racing is going to be very tight and extra patience will be required by all. It seems I remember from my racing days gone by that it takes being about three tenths of a second faster than the person you want to pass to actually make that pass, (or should I say, comfortably make the pass. Does that mean with or without the beatin’ and the bangin’. All I can say is “time will tell.”)

That brings us to “Just A Fan’s View” opinion time. So, who does this fan think is going to win this weekend? Wow, that’s a great question. I kinda wish they would have had qualifying because pit placement is so important at Martinsville and that will figure highly into who the possible winner will be. In all honesty, it is going to depend on consistency in the pits and that ever constant strategy for fuel and tires. Track position will be the key to victory this weekend along with a little racing luck figuring into the mix.

I’m going to stick my neck way out there and choose the winner of the race to be, Jeff Gordon. He is hungry and knows his chances of winning at Martinsville are very good and that confidence could figure greatly into the victory being his this weekend. This weekend at Martinsville in my opinion is his best chance of visiting victory lane so far this year.

In any case, there’s no denying there will be more than a little beatin’ and bangin’ going on and more than a few altercations caused by paybacks, impatience and frustration.

Here’s one of my all time favorite short track memorable quotes after an altercation that resulted in a driver being spun out by another. It goes something like this: “Look, I tried you high, I tried you low and then, ‘cotton picker’, it was time for you to go!”

Now, I know you can tell I have slightly edited that, but no matter, I’m sure we’ll see some of that happen at Martinsville this weekend. That’s one good thing about the C.O.T. though — It can take beatin’ and keep on racin’.

See ya next time …

Rusty

© 2008 PCN Productions and Rusty Norman

all rights reserved

Update on: “Nascar in Charlotte: After Chatter … “Just A Fan’s View …”

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Nascar at Lowe’s Speedway in Charlotte, NC proved once again that it ain’t over ’til it’s over. Jeff Burton came away with the victory and Kasey Kane finished a relatively close second. This was a race that went right down to the wire and was decided once again by strategy in the pits and the way the C.O.T. responds to clean air with the harder tires that need more downforce. It was a really good race and there weren’t any real controversial situations to contend with.

My last Friday, before-the-race pick for the win, Jeff Gordon, made a good showing even after bouncing off of the wall a couple of times near the beginning of the race and getting a lap down. It looked like he may pull off the win with about a hundred or so miles left to go. He finished eighth, (not a bad finish considering how hard he hit the wall the second time and for all of the problems that put him through.)

The top four “race for the chase” standings were slightly shaken up again for the second week in a row. Carl Edwards had some mysterious ignition problems along with just some bad luck. He dropped back in points for “The Chase” for the second week, but this time hurt his chances a bit more. He now sits in fourth place with five races to go. Now, I’m not sayin’ he’s out of it but he can’t afford any more bad finishes.

Kasey Kane improved his position by moving to only 86 points behind David Ragan for that coveted thirteenth place in the standings for those that missed “the chase”. (It still strikes me as funny that we talk abut the race for thirteenth place. Its amazing the value a “little” extra money can put on finishing so far out of first place.)

It was good to see Jeff Burton win but I can’t say it was totally unexpected. In fact, I did mention him in the ones I thought would be contenders for the checkered flag, I just didn’t pick him to win. (Oh well, I guess that means I finished thirteenth this week.)

Now, it’s “Just A Fans’ View” opinion time. There are a lot things I like about the C.O.T but there is one thing that really disappoints me. When it comes to the 1-1/2 mile tracks in particular, I’ve noticed that once a car gets out in front in the clean air that car seems to be able to pull away from the pack. I haven’t gone back and checked this next point out totally yet, but it also seems that the best finishes with the C.O.T. are ones that have had a caution near the end of the race. I think that is unfortunate, but, don’t get me wrong, I like the C.O.T. and I do remember the days when the race winners sometimes finished many laps ahead of the competitors behind them. What we have now is much better especially when the person we want to win is running out front.

Well, that’s the way I see it for now. Next is Martinsville … that should prove to be interesting. Tune in Friday for the next edition of “Just A Fan’s View” …

See ya next time…
Rusty

Nascar in Charlotte … A Fan’s View of Who Could Win This Weekend, (For The Record)

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It is no surprise Nascar is in Charlotte, NC this weekend. They’re supposed to be. I just wanted to say a few things for the record. What this is about is my opinion of who is going to win the Sprint Cup race this weekend.

First of all, I have to admit there is one in particular that I would rather see win, but, I fear you might think I am biased if I told you, so I won’t. I would rather just express who I think will win and if it happens to be the person I would most like to see win, all the better. If not, then I chose the right one anyway, (especially if the person I pick wins.)

Okay, enough rambling. Let’s take a look at the stronger runners in Friday afternoon’s Happy Hour practice. I have to admit that Jimmy Johnson looks pretty strong and actually finished with the fastest lap times for the practice. Carl Edwards was a very close second and could prove to be the real competition for Jimmy. If you just look at the practice session times, it looks as though this one is going to be an endurance run for the two on the front row. I guess I can’t get away from the fact that Greg Biffle is starting inside on the second row. With the results of his testing it looks as though he will be tough also and I have to throw him into the possible mix.

I would say that most think Jimmy Johnson and Carl Edwards are the two front runners this weekend. Unfortunately, I don’t agree with the masses. I mention this because the same thing that happened at Talladega last week could very likely affect the outcome this week (although I don’t think Carl Edwards will be the “culprit”). Racing at Lowe’s Speedway offers the possibility for a “Big One” that can take out any of the top contenders at any time during the race. We’ve seen that carnage before especially on restarts later in the race. We’ve also seen the absolute unexpected happen very near the end of the race that radically changes the final result. In fact, that happened to Ryan Newman in the race at this time last year.

Tony Stewart was awfully strong on the long runs in practice Friday afternoon and that could cause a person to think he is a real contender for the checkered flag Saturday night. I think he has an excellent chance, but he isn’t the one I believe is going to win.

Kevin Harvick is due and so is Jeff Burton, but, they don’t top my list either although I do believe they will be contenders in the race.

Brian Vickers or Casey Kane would be my dark-horse candidates and could very possibly play into the mix at the end. I think it all depends on how the action in the pits and the strategy for tires and fuel plays out.

That brings us to a couple of drivers that are quite capable, although unlikely, to win. Jamie McMurray and Jeff Gordon, ( I can’t believe I am saying Jeff Gordon is unlikely to win). Personally, I think a lot of things need to go right for both of them for either one of them to end up in victory lane. If this were last year, I would have to give the edge to Jeff Gordon simply because of the way the breaks just seemed to go right for him most of the time last year. (That hasn’t been the case this year.) Jamie McMurray has been up and down all year, (I guess most every year he’s been in Cup so far, but he does have the capability to take it to victory lane). It is hard for me to choose him as the winner this weekend simply because of the inconsistency factor and some bad breaks.

With forty three great drivers in the field and all of them lined up according to points because of the rain-out of qualifying, who do I choose out of the forty-three starters?? It is a really hard decision, but, I choose Jeff Gordon. I think he is absolutely due for a good finish even though the odds are against him and I do believe he is going to get his first victory of the season this weekend.

Well … there it is. I know it’s a long shot, but, that’s the way I see it and I’m sticking with it … this week anyway. I think it goes without saying, next week could be a different story …

See ya next time …

Rusty

Update on: “Nascar At Talladega … A Fan’s View… “

Well, I’ve had a chance to listen to a few of the day after the day after chatterings and I find that more than one person actually agrees with me. It makes me feel good to know that I’m not totally out in left field.

Although I’m sure there will be those that disagree, I think I’m in pretty good company. Jeff Burton, I find today, stated yesterday that he thought the yellow line should be thought of as a wall. That was only one thing he said but I am glad that my statement agreed with one as knowledgeable he is. It makes me think I am on the right track in my thinking processes.

According to reporters on Sirius Radio, Mike Helton clarified the rule yesterday by stating that in the future there would be no passing below the yellow line, “PERIOD”. I guess that pretty much removes any debate on the issue. I am glad a definitive statement has been made. He effectively removed any gray area.

Now for my own view of what Regan Smith states. I’ve surmised from listening to multiple interviews over the last three days, that the way he understands it, Nascar has basically told him the next time he should spin the person out and cause a big wreck.

I personally don’t agree with his assessment. My opinion of what they told him in the trailer was that “he should have held his line” (at least in listening to him explain it while being interviewed by more than one person on tv and radio.)

My understanding from what has been reported is that they told him to “hold his line” rather than dodge further to the left. Now remember, this is just my opinion, but this is not telling him to take a hard right into Tony’s left rear fender and purposely spin him out. If he would have held his line at Talladega this last weekend then it would have been up to Tony Stewart to control his car after making contact from the blocking maneuver. As I see it Tony then has two choices himself. If he continues blocking to the left, there is a good possibility he will spin to the infield. If he moves slightly to the right, then the race is on to the flag, no harm no foul.

I am sure there are many out there that have differing opinions and comments on this subject. My opinion is, “feel free to comment” don’t remain silent. Speak up! I’m going to.

I think the Yellow line is a good rule and that Nascar made the right decision on Sunday afternoon. That’s my view and I’m sticking with it …

See ya next time …