Tony Stewart won the Emory Healthcare 500 at AMS, ten of the top twelve are locked into the Chase and the last two of the top twelve would have to have an absolute   disastrous race in Richmond to miss it. Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer aren’t locked in, but they might as well be with what it would take for them to miss out on a chance to make a run for the Sprint Cup Championship.

That is exactly what Ryan Newman is hoping for next Saturday night; a totally unexpected happening that takes one or both of them out and giving him an opportunity to make it in. The chances of Ryan making it are astronomical, at least from this fan’s view, but it will add at least the slightest bit of drama to a points race that is pretty much already decided. Yeah, many are still pulling for Ryan to make it in, but not many expect it.

Basically, Jamie McMurray is out (barring the absolute disasters mentioned above) but he has had a year of highs and lows. He’s won the big ones (Daytona and Indy) but Atlanta was crunch time for the #1 Earnhardt/Ganassi team and they just didn’t have it. Jamie had a good year but as a team, they need to work on being more consistent.

The thing I noticed from my view was watching many of the Cup cars with over 800 horsepower dirt-trackin’ the asphalt for the whole night. For some, it was as slippery as a clay track in the Midwest on a Saturday night after a heavy rain. (Maybe I should mention why I say that… I grew up around the dirt tracks in the Midwest and remember some of those Saturday nights.) One thing is certain, no matter how many horses you have under the hood, if you’re not hooking ‘em up you sure aren’t going anywhere fast. The tire Goodyear brought to Atlanta was plenty durable but many of the teams had trouble hookin’ them up to the track. I don’t think we can put the blame on Goodyear (even though I’m sure many would like to.) Part of the blame definitely has to go the racing surface at the Atlanta Motor Speedway… it is losing it’s grip and has become more and more abrasive.

I really expected the Roush Fords to make a better showing than they did although Carl Edwards did finish second. From this fan’s view (and looking at performance over the last several weeks), it does look like the strongest teams going into the Chase will be RCR Chevys and, quite possibly, the Roush/Fenway Fords. I know things can do a 180 when the Chase starts, but they have been showing more consistent runs than the other teams for the last several weeks.

Atlanta Motor Speedway is not a good place to judge over-all performance and it seems from this fan’s view that it has become a track that many teams experience either feast or famine. Case in point would be Kurt Bush; he basically had the field covered in the spring and struggled most of the night with a car they could not get to hook up. I’m not sure whether it was the diligence of crew chief Steve Addington or Kasey Kahne slamming into him later in the race that helped them run better, but he did finish sixth on a night it looked as though he would finish 25^th or worse.

Although I know Steve Addington was busting his hump to make it better all night, it seems to me they did much better after the 3400 pound “full body slam” of Kahne… (Hey, I’m just sayin’…)

I don’t expect much to change as far as the top twelve points positions are concerned even though the NASCAR Spring Cup series heads to Richmond this coming weekend, but, this has been a year of many unexpected happenings and I guess anything (even the next to impossible) can happen.

Like I said, I don’t expect it will happen… but… that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t like to see it happen. Hey, it’s nothing against Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle or Richard Childress but it would definitely add something called drama to the racing for the weekend if both Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer blew engines during the first lap or two… don’t ya think?

See ya next time… Rusty

All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer

© September 8, 2010 – all rights reserved

Rusty Norman and NascarFansView.com

(All audio productions by www.podcastnorm.com and PCNProduction s.com

NASCAR Cup teams hit the 1½ mile oval at Atlanta this weekend and it is definitely now or never for the ones that have even the slimmest chance of making it into the Chase.

The question in everyone’s mind is whether or not the three closest to Clint Bowyer can make it into the top twelve and have a chance for the Cup Championship. Those three are Jamie McMurray, Mark Martin and Ryan Newman and to put it lightly, Clint Bowyer would definitely have to have a couple of bad weeks for any of the three to make it in before him.

From this fan’s view the one with the best chance is Jamie McMurray. He has definitely been performing as good as anyone over the last several weeks and he has won two of the most prestigious races on the Cup circuit, the Daytona 500 and the Indy 400. If anyone has a chance at making it into the top twelve for the Chase, I think it is Jamie if for no other reason than he has gained so many spots in the last several races. Of course, Mark Martin is only one point behind him and that does pose interesting options.

There comes a point in any season where you’re either in or out. I think the biggest problem any of the three I just mentioned have in getting into the Chase is the performance of the other drivers in the top twelve already. To simplify, it means the ones that have a mathematical chance of making it in depend on the ones that are already in the top twelve having extremely bad races over the next two weeks. In either case, all of them performing just as they have (or only slightly better) means there will be no noticeable change in the standings and those that are in the top twelve will remain the top twelve for the Chase.

Atlanta Motor Speedway is one of the tougher tracks for the teams to get a handle on. Two things come to mind making it a little more of a challenge and that is the speeds they run and the abrasiveness of the track. Tires are the most important factor at AMS and the ones that can manage tire-wear the best throughout a run will be the ones challenging for the win at the end, or at least that is my opinion. As I think about it, three things will come definitely into play on Sunday night when it comes down to running for the checkered flag; tire-wear, track position and fuel mileage.

I’m not sure what is going on in the Hendrick camp but it sure appears they are struggling to find the speed needed to be as competitive as they need to be. Earlier in the season, the same could be said about the Roush teams and it looked doubtful at times they would even make the Chase. Right now, both Dale Jr and Mark Martin are struggling more than the other two Hendrick teams. Jeff Gordon has been consistent and is in second spot in the points so far, but he hasn’t looked as strong as he did earlier in the season. Jimmie Johnson has struggled lately and it looks as if they are going to have to work hard to strongly defend their Cup Championship titles and shoot for that history making fifth in a row.

Right now, at least from this fan’s view, the Richard Childress Chevys and the Jack Roush Fords look very strong. For RCR that is a big turnaround from last year. All of the Childress teams look strong and, barring the absolute unforeseen, two of them are definitely going to be challenging for the Cup title this year. Kevin Harvick has been rock solid for most of the season and Jeff Burton could be even higher in the points and possibly even have a win or two had circumstances worked just slightly different for him. I look for both of them to do well this weekend at Atlanta.

At AMS, one can never discount the performance of the Bush brothers. Kurt Bush has won the last two spring races in Atlanta and Kyle Bush is almost always in the mix for the win at the end of 500 miles. Although they drive for different teams, I cannot count them out for possibly winning Sunday night. In my opinion, Penske and Gibbs teams generally perform one of two ways at this track and that is feast or famine. I expect Kurt to be a contender, but a lot can happen over 500 miles on a Labor Day weekend at AMS.

Stewart/Haas Racing has one team in and one team out as far as the Chase is concerned and both have to run well this weekend to either stay in the Chase or stay in contention to make the Chase. Of course the one that is in and mathematically can’t afford to have two bad weeks is Tony Stewart. Ryan Newman on the other hand has to have two really good weeks and those ahead of him in points have to have really bad weeks.

Unfortunately, I’ve pretty much ruled out the chance of Ryan making it into the Chase, but, I do know stranger things have happened, although not in recent history. He does have a good chance at finishing out the year in the thirteenth position at the end of the year. Don’t forget, Stewart/Haas Racing also runs Hendrick equipment and engines and, from this fan’s view, as a whole all of the Hendrick teams have been struggling in particular during these summer months.

When it comes to who might win this weekend, I’m definitely at a loss. It could be any of the ones mentioned above or it could be someone else. Some are talking about Kasey Kahne and he is a good possibility, but I’m thinking more along the lines of one of the Roush teams. Greg Biffle has been showing himself to run strong and Matt Kenseth has been running consistently. Carl Edwards is still struggling, but this could be a break out week for him.

Personally, when it comes down to who I would like to see win in particular this weekend I would have to pick Jeff Gordon. His car was designed by his daughter this weekend to highlight the Jeff Gordon Children’s Foundation and he has won at the track before. I would really like to see Jeff finally get into the win column this year. Like Jeff Burton, if things had been slightly different in a few races earlier in the year, he could have won more than a couple of races by now. Oh well, maybe he’s saving up all his wins for the Chase…

See ya next time… Rusty

All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer

© September 4, 2010 – all rights reserved

Rusty Norman and NascarFansView.com

(All audio productions by www.podcastnorm.com and PCNProductions.com

Kyle Bush made NASCAR history again last weekend at Bristol and will probably continue to do so throughout his career… but, not everyone is happy with him. Yes, it is true he became the first to win in all three series in one weekend at a track but some question the way he won at least one of the races. I guess the most seen highlight of the week would be where he got a little shove from Brad Keselowski that caused him to brush the wall and then he followed Brad, turned him and took him out of contention. Some call it aggressive driving (referencing Dale Earnhardt Sr) and others just call it dirty driving… and me… well…

It has been an interesting couple of years for Brad Keselowski. He has become one of the  more criticized drivers in the garages of the Nationwide series and the Sprint Cup series. Between his run ins with more known names like Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards and Kyle Bush, he has become known as an over-aggressive driver and has even been put on probation for the rest of the year by NASCAR; (and don’t forget, he isn’t alone on that list.)

Last year, I noticed Brad’s actions and questioned why he thought he should be allowed to be aggressive, but no one should pay him back and I guess I passed it off as his being new in the game and wanting people to take notice. I did think he was a bit over the edge and knew there would be paybacks coming and, when they did happen (and continued to happen), I did think he would learn his lessons. With NASCAR coming out at the beginning of the season this year and basically saying “have at it boys”, I think paybacks have become expected by the drivers and the fans, (but did you notice they never happen the way the media hopes and hypes it?)

From this fans view, I do think some have gone a little overboard on both sides of the discussion and I would much rather Kyle Bush not have taken out his competition in the Nationwide race that allowed him to have the “historic” weekend and actually beat Keselowski the way he was probably going to anyway… by just driving by him. (I don’t know, maybe he wouldn’t have been able to catch him if he hadn’t turned him when he did.)

As it stands, yes, Kyle Bush did make NASCAR history, but his Nationwide win on the weekend is at least slightly questionable. (And just as a side note (from this fan’s view, of course), have you noticed the conversation about Kyle has changed a bit from him being “overly-aggressive” previously to once again him having “the most raw talent” of any driver on the track right now.) Yeah, I know he is talented and I do appreciate his talents both on and off the track, but I do know the door swings both ways and his “aggressive driving” could also yield the dividend of “paybacks”, too.

Did anyone besides me notice who was missing from the top ten finishing order…? That’s right, Hendrick Motor Sports.  Sure, Jeff Gordon finished eleventh, clinched his spot in the Chase, but was hardly in position to make a good showing for Hendrick Motor Sports.

There was the possibility Jimmie Johnson could have given Kyle some competition for the Cup win, but Montoya took care of that with a questionable hook of Johnson’s right rear, turning the #48 into the wall and all but putting them out of the race. I have to agree with Jimmie, “What the h___?!? (Uh, that’s “heck” for those of you that don’t know me). JJ did give Montoya room but Juan didn’t seem to see it that way. He said on the radio Johnson moved over like he wasn’t there.

To tell the truth, it doesn’t surprise me; Montoya does things like this at times and it defies explanation. Of course, he always apologizes afterwards… it’s a question of whether he really means to put somebody out or whether he just meant to let them know he was there. In either event, he was sorry but the damage is usually done and he escaped once again without much damage and continued on, finishing seventh, while Johnson finished thirty-fifth, 85 laps down.

Mark Martin didn’t fair well either. He was passed by Jamie McMurray for the thirteenth spot in the points, making the run for the twelfth spot even more interesting. From this fan’s view, I still don’t think it’s over, but, Clint Bowyer is looking more in control all the time. For me, it just makes the last two races all the more interesting to see who will actually make into that twelfth spot.

All in all, Bristol shook up a lot of things in the top twelve points’ race and there could still be some surprises left in store for the end results. I figure it this way, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon are in and a few of more will clinch their spots next race in Atlanta. After that, it is the up to the rest to not blow it…

See ya next time… Rusty

All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer

© August 26, 2010 – all rights reserved

Rusty Norman and NascarFansView.com

(All audio productions by www.podcastnorm.com and PCNProductions.com

What could be better than spending a Saturday night watching short track racing under the lights? Nothing… and the only thing better than watching it at your local track is enjoying it at the world’s fastest half-mile track, Bristol Motor Speedway. It will be a night of fast cars on a high banked oval with hot tempers and likely more than a few banged up cars by the end of the night.

Another thing to watch for would be some confrontational situations that could develop simply because of the four sitting outside the top twelve trying to make it into the Chase. Now, I’m not saying there will fisticuffs, but there could be more than a few “discussions” before this night race is put to rest (like the one between Joey Logano and Ryan Newman last week.) Judging from the high emotions of last week’s race, this Saturday could be even more emotionally high charged. It all depends on how things go (and, of course, who puts who out.)

The biggest topic of discussion so far this week has been about the tires Goodyear brought. Everybody has something to say about them and not all of it is good. From listening in on conversations, it appears Goodyear brought a harder compound than last time (because they did have a few tire issues). When I say everybody has something to say about them, it seems most say the same thing… “They’re just different”, “the cars just feel different” and “we can’t seem to get any grip.” Fortunately, loose usually means fast but unfortunately, it also means unpredictable.

In qualifying many ran a higher groove than normal and commented they were faster and more comfortable there. Jimmie Johnson won the pole running the low line, complained about how loose the car was and was surprised at how fast he ran on his first lap. From this fan’s view, is appears it is going to be a night of loose race cars and I do predict there will be some drivers displaying frustration with those around them and the cars they are driving. The crew chiefs are going to have to hang tough tonight because I also predict they will be getting an ear full from their drivers.

I do look for the battle to continue between Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin. I know both are determined to make that 12^th spot. Some have already given the spot to Bowyer, but I’m not so sure. Mark Martin isn’t the type to just throw in the towel as long as there is still a chance to take the spot. There is a bit more pressure on him and his crew Allan Gustafson but neither one of them is a quitter. Admittedly, the season hasn’t been what either of them wanted but they haven’t given up on trying to make the top 12.

Don’t forget, this is short track racing and anybody’s mistake on the track, or in the pits, can take more than one contender along with them and ruin their night. I expect on the track is the more likely place but the pits have become a battle ground and little things that happen there can make big differences on the track.

Another thing to keep in mind is you have the teams of Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray and even Kasey Kahne that want to make it into that 12^th spot, too. None of them are going to lay down and give anything away either; at least not until there is no chance left. This could be their last track at having a chance to make up a major portion of points on those ahead of them and I expect them to be more aggressive than usual simply because time is running out for them.

I’m not going to take much time trying to pick a winner, but I do expect Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Bush to be right up there fighting for the win. I’m not going to rule out the Roush Fords either. Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and even Greg Biffle all had strong cars at one point or another in the practices and qualifying. Besides, they have made their presence known in obvious ways over the last several weeks. Any of the three could pull off a victory tonight.

Of all the back markers that have a shot, I can’t rule out Jeff Gordon. After last week’s performance in coming from the back to the front, (even though it didn’t turn out well for him), I never rule him out of being able to win at Bristol. With the way the weekend has started for him the odds are against him, but I do think he has to be considered a contender.

As usual, and in particular on this Saturday night, it is a hard night to pick a winner. (After all, this is short track racing and it is Bristol.) More than the ones I have mentioned have a chance at taking a victory tonight, but this is this fan’s view of how it will all go down tonight.

After all, this is short track racing and it is Bristol (and yes, I do know I just repeated myself…)

See ya next time… Rusty

All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer

© August 21, 2010 – all rights reserved

Rusty Norman and NascarFansView.com

(All audio productions by www.podcastnorm.com and PCNProductions.com

Kevin Harvick continues his impressive run this year as he extends his lead in points and RCR is looking as strong as ever on the season with all three teams in the top 12 at the moment.

As this fan expected, the Fords did make a strong showing this weekend at a track they used to perform well at anyway. The Roush Teams of Edwards, Biffle and Kenseth also made a strong statement by finishing 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th on the day at Michigan International Speedway. I don’t know how they will fair for the next couple of weeks, but it does appear they have worked out some of their problems and I am sure they will continue to use their new found speed to finish better on a regular basis.

Kurt Bush had a strong car but, surprisingly, had an early engine failure that took him out of the race and cost him a lot of points. The reason I say surprisingly is because the engines for Penske Racing have been very reliable over time and I am sure they were just as surprised by the major failure as anyone. Between this minor setback and a couple of altercations with Jimmie Johnson, he has been losing positions in the points and that can’t continue or he may not make the Chase. As it is, he is in but can’t afford anymore finishes like this last weekend in Michigan. Over the next three weeks it is a long shot that he could miss the Chase, but this is another one of those “it could happen” moments in NASCAR.

Denny Hamlin somehow managed to pull out a second place finish even though it was a quiet second place finish for him. He was in the right place at the right time. That’s not to say he didn’t deserve to place second, but he didn’t look like a second place car for most of the afternoon. To me, it just suddenly happened for him and he managed to stay there. (Yeah, I know he was leading at one point near the end, but honestly, he never looked like the car to beat to me, not even when he was ahead of Kevin Harvick in the closing laps.)

A lot has been said about the Hendrick teams lackluster performances over the last several weeks of competition and rightfully so. The #48 team of Jimmie Johnson has been showing up generally strong when they unload off the truck and not at the end and that is a big change from last year at this time. It is unknown if they are just experimenting and trying stuff or if the Hendrick teams are really struggling and Jimmie Johnson is not going to make it five in a row as far as Championships go. I wouldn’t give up on him just yet, but it has really been a different year for the #48 team all around.

Mark Martin has been up and down (mostly down) and definitely has to have very strong performances over the next three weeks if he hopes to beat out Clint Bowyer for the coveted 12^th spot in points and a chance winning a Cup Championship this year. Michigan was not nice to him and didn’t really make the outlook for being in the Chase look too hopeful. Still, the battle between him and Bowyer is one to watch at least for couple more weeks.

Jeff Gordon has been the lone bright spot for HMS although he has struggled a lot when it comes to finishing up front. He has been consistent enough to be in second place in the points but has been disappointed more than once this year in taking wins.

This last weekend at Michigan didn’t do anything to help his outlook either. He started 36^th, had a really strong racecar, worked his way up as far as second place and actually looked to be one that could challenge Kevin Harvick for the win. Unfortunately, he ran into the wrong side of that thing called racing luck again, had a flat left front tire going into a turn in a pack of cars, and, although he managed to stay off the wall, he took himself out of contention along with another strong Chevy piloted by Jeff Burton. Jeff Burton finished 24^th and Jeff Gordon finished 27^th.  Both of them have to be very disappointed because they both had strong cars all day.

This coming weekend is racing at what is known as the world’s fastest half mile track and if last weekend at Michigan gives any insight as to what Bristol will be like, look out! Short tracks are always known for hurt feelings, short tempers and banged up race cars buy the end of the night. This fan doesn’t expect this night race to be any different, especially this late in the season and with getting, or staying, in the Chase at stake…

See ya next time… Rusty

All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer

© August 19, 2010 – all rights reserved

Rusty Norman and NascarFansView.com

(All audio productions by www.podcastnorm.com and PCNProductions.com

NASCAR Sprint Cup Teams hit the track at Michigan this weekend and although some are safely in The Chase (barring absolute disasters), some are not and the drama for those that are not will continue for the next four weeks. At that point the top twelve positions will shift around according to points with the addition of the number of wins a driver has. That means those that are leading the points at this point won’t necessarily be at the top of the list anymore and those with the most wins will take their positions.

Let’s face it; if someone outside the top twelve is going to make it in, they are going to have to finish up front for the next four races. Ten points separate 12^th from 13^th and the only ones that have a realistic shot other than them are in positions 14 to 17, at least, that’s my opinion.

Let’s just say for argument sake that the 19^th spot is the cut off point. For Juan Montoya to break into the top twelve and make it into the Chase would mean he has to make up 205 points over the next four races. Although it is possible, it isn’t too likely. It is true, a driver can make up 160 points a race, but, that would mean the driver would have to finish first and lead the most laps and the other driver would have to finish last. I think the chances for that happening are slim indeed, but since we are talking about NASCAR, we cannot totally overlook any possibilities. After all, stranger things have happened and recently, some teams have had extended weeks of bad breaks and poor finishes.

Personally, I think the real possibilities are between Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin. They can go at it for the next four weeks and we may not know which of them is in until the race at Richmond. I suppose it is possible they could both have a bad four weeks and someone else beat them out for that coveted 12^th spot and a place in the Chase. (Notice I said it is possible… I didn’t say I expected it to happen.)

After watching the practice and qualifying sessions on Friday afternoon, it is pretty obvious to this fan this could be a race with some different faces up front. Yeah, I know that sounds a little strange but this could be a week for Fords and Dodges to shine. We’ve come to expect the RCR and Hendrick teams to perform well and they generally do, but, this week I’m thinking they may have their work cut out for them; that is, unless they make some great strides in the final practice today.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the Chevys won’t be around the front at the end of the race, I’m just saying the Fords and Dodges looked pretty fast on Friday and if that trend continues, it very well could be a Roush Ford or Penske Dodge taking home the hardware at the end of the day on Sunday.

Of course, I can’t overlook the EGR teams of Montoya and McMurray either. Once again Montoya has shown up to the track with a fast race car. After his victory at The Glen, he is riding that thing they call the “big Mo” and that momentum could make a difference this weekend for him. It has been a very good year for Chip Ganassi and they have pulled off some really big wins. As I mentioned earlier, it is still possible that either one, or both, of his teams could make the Chase even though they do have their work cut out for them and more than just a couple of things have to go right for that to happen. I would even go so far as to say some other teams just ahead of them would almost certainly have to fall apart for them to make it. Still, at least finishing well this weekend keeps them in the hunt.

I’m not sure, but I don’t think the qualifying tells the whole story and I know there is another practice today for some that have appeared to be struggling to find their comfort zones.

Michigan International Speedway is a fast track with a lot of room for racing and track position will also play a big part in who can get and stay out front. I expect there to be long green flag runs and, as usual, I expect fuel mileage to play a big factor at the end. If there is a long green flag run at the end without a caution, it is a given that the one that can run consistently fast and use the least amount of fuel has the best chance to win. It is all going to come down to those last couple of laps especially if there is no caution to take fuel mileage out of the equation.

Who’s going to win? That’s a great question… I’m thinking it could be Jeff Burton or Mark Martin. (Yeah, I know they’re Chevys and I said the Fords and Dodges looked fast, but, once a Chevy man, always a Chevy man…)

See ya next time… Rusty

All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer

© August 14, 2010 – all rights reserved

Rusty Norman and NascarFansView.com

(All audio productions by www.podcastnorm.com and PCNProductions.com